With $53 million on its first day of release (including $17 million from Thursday previews),Avatar: The Way of Wateris coming in slightly lower than anticipated. The film was tracking to make between $150 million and $175 million in its debut weekend at the domestic box office, but those figures have now been revised to $130 million - $150 million after Friday’s figures.
The film’s $53 million opening day tally ranks number six for the year, behindDoctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness($90.7 million),Black Panther: Wakanda Forever($84.2 million),Thor: Love and Thunder($69.5 million),Jurassic World Dominion($59.5 million) andThe Batman($56.6 million). But it’s worth noting that superhero movies tend to be frontloaded, and directorJames Cameronhas a proven history of drawing repeat audiences to his movies, which tend to perform through the holiday season and well into the following year.
His firstAvatarfilm famously opened low back in 2009, and went on to dominate the box office for months. It made $77 million in its opening weekend after a $26 million opening day, so no matter how things stand after a couple of days,The Way of Water’s three-day debut is going to be significantly greater than its predecessor’s. Internationally, the film has made $127 million so far, for an early global total of $180 million.
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The bar for success, by Cameron’s own estimates, is high. The firstAvatarremains the highest-grossing film in history, with $760 million at the domestic box office and $2.9 billion worldwide. Cameron recently revealed thatThe Way of Waterwould likely have to finish as“the third or fourth biggest” film in history to break even; this translates to around $2 billion in global earnings.
In its favor is an excellent A CinemaScore from opening day audiences — this bodes well for the future — and a near-complete absence of competition. Speaking of which, the distant number two at the Friday box office was Disney’sBlack Panther: Wakanda Forever, which has now surpassed the $411 domestic haul of fellow Marvel sequelDoctor Strange 2, and is looking to finish this weekend with around $5 million after $1.4 million on Friday. This should take the film’s running domestic total to $418 million.
Universal’sViolent Nightis also vying for the number two spot after a 1.4 million third Friday. The film’s running domestic total has now passed the $30 million mark. Disney’s notorious animated bombStrange Worldwill finish at number four, after making around $500,000 on its fourth Friday, taking its running domestic total to over $30 million. The catch is that the film cost $180 million to produce, and is expected to lose the Mouse House $100 million. Expect it to land on Disney+ in a matter of days. The top five was rounded out by Searchlight’s quietly successful satirical comedyThe Menu, which is eyeing $1.5 million this weekend, pushing its running domestic total to $30 million.
If things play out like they did in 1997 withTitanicand in 2009 with the firstAvatar, expectThe Way of Waterto become a fixture on the box office charts for the next several weeks, at least untilAnt-Man and the Wasp: Quantumaniaarrives in a couple of months. You can watch our interview with Cameron here, and stay tuned to Collider for more updates.
