AlthoughCaptain America: Civil Warbecame 2016’s first film to gross a billion dollars, it seems unlikely to come close to the firstAvengersfilm on the domestic front. In addition,X-Men: ApocalypseandNeighbors 2are poised to fall well below their predecessors, andAlice Through the Looking Glassappears to be the first major flop of the summer, despite being the film to push Disney above $4 billion worldwide in 2016.
In terms of the types of films being released, this year’s June appears to be one of the more diverse in recent memory, with offerings that include a mockumentary, a historical drama, and a sequel to a 20-year-old blockbuster. During the same time frame last year,Jurassic WorldandInside Outbroke box office records to make June one of the highest grossing months of 2015. While titles such asIndependence Day: ResurgenceandFinding Dorystand a good chance of breaking out, this June will likely fall short of last year.
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping – June 3 (Universal)
Andy Sambergis undoubtedly a hugely popular comedian, and his Fox show,Brooklyn Nine-Nine, has just been renewed for a fourth season. His film track record, however, is somewhat spotty, particularly in starring roles. His first film,Hot Rod, grossed a low $13.9 million, and his most recent starring vehicle,That’s My Boy, ended up with just $36.9 million, despite his being paired withAdam Sandler.
One other challenge facingPopstar: Never Stop Never Stoppingis the limitations of the genre. Even the most critically acclaimed mockumentaries, includingThis is Spinal TapandBest in Show, have failed to break out at the box office, the latter of which having ended its run at $18.7 million. In fact, the only mockumentaries to gross higher thanBest in Showhave been based on characters played bySasha Baron Cohen(BrunoandBorat).
Nevertheless, the Lonely Island is a hugely popular group, with hits such as “Jizz In My Pants”, “I Just Had Sex” and “Jack Sparrow”, still being quoted endlessly. With some very funny trailers and a number of cameos, this should get pastBest in Showand be a solid hit for the genre.
Me Before You – June 3 (Warner Bros.)
At first glance, a comparison toThe Fault in Our Starsmay seem like a good fit forMe Before You. Both films were based on popular romantic novels, feature popular young actors, and have an early June release date. However, at the time of the film’s release,TheFault in Our Starshad sold more than twice as many copies asMe Before You. In addition, whileEmilia ClarkeandSam Claflinhave both been parts of major properties (Game of Thrones,The Hunger Gamesfranchise),Shailene Woodleywas coming off of the massively popularDivergent, which had put her on the map as a star to watch.
Another factor separating these films is their reception. In addition to being a major commercial success,The Fault in Our Starsalso struck a chord with critics, earning an 81% score on Rotten Tomatoes. While not all reviews forMe Before Youhave yet been counted, its current 50% score indicates a more mixed reception.
This is not to say thatMe Before Youwill be a flop, and with a modest $20 million budget, it doesn’t have to reachThe Fault in Our Stars’s$124.8 million gross to be considered a success. The book has sold 5 million copies worldwide, and the trailers have adequately sold the book’s themes of finding love in unlikely places and living life to the fullest. In addition, being sandwiched between the big budget action tent polesX-Men: ApocalypseandWarcraft, along with opening againstTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, should helpMe Before Youstand out as great counter programming for teens and adults. This should end up around fellow romantic drama,Dear John($80.0 million), also based on a popular novel.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows – June 3 (Paramount)
In 2014,Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesdefied reasonable expectations and opened with a massive $65.5 million and held on well, all the way to a $191.2 million gross. This proved to Paramount that the brand was still incredibly popular, causing a sequel to be green lit immediately.
While the titular Turtles are on full display in the marketing forTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, andMegan Fox,Will Arnett, andLaura Linneyare popular actors, the trailers for this installment don’t seem to offer anything terribly new, causing the sequel to seem mostly like a retread. The first weekend of June has also proven to be a tough time to open an action movie. The opening weekend of 2011’sX-Men: First Classcame in well below its predecessors at $55.1 million, and Tom Cruise’s alien invasion thrillerEdge of Tomorrowcould only earn $28.7 million.
While its overall gross would not indicate this, the reception ofTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtleswas not terribly favorable. It was critically savaged, earning a 22% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the 5.9 IMDB user rating indicates mixed to negative reactions. In addition,Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesopened in August, with little to no competition for family audiences, whileOut of the ShadowshasFinding Doryto contend with two weeks later.
However, theTeenage Mutant Ninja Turtlesbrand is still hugely popular across several generations, and those who enjoyed the original film likely still have it fresh in their minds. While it will likely come in significantly under its predecessor, this should still turn out as a modest hit for Paramount, especially overseas.
Now You See Me 2 – June 10 (Lionsgate)
While opening against aWill Smithsci-fi actioner would normally be a death sentence,Now You See Mebeat all reasonable expectations and became one of 2013’s biggest surprises, earning $29.3 million in its opening weekend and holding on extremely well to earn a total of $117.7 million. While critics weren’t terribly impressed with the film (holds a 49% on Rotten Tomatoes), audiences for the most part enjoyed it, giving it a 7.3 IMDB user rating.
With the exception ofIsla Fisher, the strong ensemble cast that includesJesse Eisenberg,Mark Ruffalo,Woody Harrelson, andMorgan Freemanis back, with the welcome additions ofLizzy CaplanandDaniel Radcliffe. While the first film centered on The Four Horsemen outsmarting the police and evading capture,Now You See Me 2appears to feature the group being forced into a heist by Radcliffe and Freeman’s characters. This helps to differentiate it from its predecessor in a fun and exciting way, while, judging from the trailers, keeping the first film’s humor and sense of adventure intact.
Despite these advantages, an impressive surprise run like that ofNow You See Meis difficult to replicate. However, the goodwill of the first film and the strong trailers should result in a gross high enough to justify the studio’s already planned third installment.
The Conjuring 2 – June 10 (Warner Bros.)
Nearly three years ago,The Conjuringtook the domestic box office by storm, grossing a huge $41.8 million in its opening weekend, and showing remarkable staying power (especially for a horror movie) and ending its run with $137.4 million. The film was a major critical and commercial success, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 86%, which is nearly unheard of for mainstream horror, and a strong 7.5 IMDB user rating.
Can lightning strike twice withThe Conjuring 2? As history would indicate, it seems unlikely. Two recent breakout horror hits,The Grudge($110.3 million) andThe Ring($129.1 million), had sequels that were significant commercial disappointments and arrived within three years of their predecessors. The massively successfulParanormal Activity 2also came in at 78.5% of its predecessor. There are, however, some exceptions.Insidious: Chapter 2, also directed by horror legendJames Wan, improved uponInsidiousby 54.6%, andParanormal Activity 3managed to gross nearly $20 million more than its predecessor.
The Conjuring 2, like its predecessor, has hugely effective trailers that feature several genuine scares and highlight the true story angle. The film also has returning cast membersPatrick WilsonandVera Farmiga, and takes the story this time to London, where a family was under attack for an alleged three years. While it may not reach the heights of its predecessor, this should still be a massive hit for the horror genre.
Warcraft – June 10 (Universal)
Not since 2010’sPrince of Persia: The Sands of Timehave we seen a video game adaptation as ambitious asWarcraft. The film carries a massive budget, is directed by a hugely talented director (Duncan Jones), and has a prime summer release date.
Unfortunately, judging from what we’ve seen so far,Warcraftdoesn’t feel like a movie that is likely to have broad appeal beyond the game’s fan base. The effects, while impressive, come across as looking ironically like a video/computer game, particularly the “orc” characters. Instead of seeming like a new and exciting property, it feels more like a rip-off of past fantasy adaptations such asThe Lord of the RingsorGame of Thrones.
One other factor that is not helping Warcraft’s cause is its reception: it currently sits at an extremely low 22%, which seems unlikely to convince anyone on the fence about seeing the film. Effects driven and 3D films tend to fare better overseas, but statesideWarcraftseems likely to join past disappointing video game adaptations such asMax PayneandNeed for Speed.
Central Intelligence – June 17 (Warner Bros.)
Dwayne JohnsonandKevin Hart, two actors with great comedic timing who have built up their star power quite a bit over the last three years, seem like a natural fit for a wide reaching action comedy likeCentral Intelligence. Judging from the trailers, which feature quite a few funny moments, the pair has great chemistry, even if the film does feel slightly reminiscent of Hart’s recent film withIce Cube,Ride Along, in which he also plays a fish out of water thrown into a case with a member of law enforcement. These factors, combined with a summer release date and surprisingly little competition for comedies, should add up to a hit for Warner Bros.
Central Intelligenceis being released during the same frame as that ofThe Heatthree years ago.The Heatwas also a buddy action comedy featuring two popular actors (Sandra BullockandMelissa McCarthy) opening against a blockbuster tent pole (2013’sWhite House Down). That film, however, was released at the height of McCarthy’s career and had the added benefit of providing counter programming by appealing heavily to females. AlthoughThe Heat’s$159.5 million gross may be a little high forCentral Intelligence, a figure closer toRide Along’s $134.9 million seems within reach.
Finding Dory – June 17 (Disney)
Last year, Pixar made history by releasing two films in the same year. The first film,Inside Out, grossed $356.4 million, becoming one of the studio’s top grossing films. The second,The Good Dinosaur, ended up becoming the studio’s lowest grossing film with a very small $123.0, considered a flop by Pixar standards.
Given a number of factors, this summer’sFinding Dorywill likely come much closer toInside OutthanThe Good Dinosaur. Pixar’s history is filled with classics, but 2003’sFinding Nemois among the most beloved entries in the studio’s library. The film was also a major commercial success, ending with a $339.7 million domestic gross and $936.7 million worldwide. The trailers forFinding Dorysuccessfully puts the audience back into the world ofFinding Nemo, and while the principal characters return,Finding Dorysmartly puts the focus on Dory (voiced byEllen DeGeneres), who was undoubtedly the most popular part of the first film.
LikeToy Story 3, which arrived 11 years after the last installment,Finding Dorywill capitalize on nostalgia for adults who saw the first film as children, and on younger demographics who recently discoveredFinding Nemofor the first time. In addition, the film has family audiences to itself untilThe Secret Life of Petsarrives three weeks later. This will likely join the ranks of Pixar’s highest grossing films, particularly if it turns out to be as good as the trailers look.
Free State of Jones – June 24 (STX Entertainment)
Though it may seem like an odd choice for a film about the Civil War to be released at the height of blockbuster season (particularly againstIndependence Day: Resurgence), box office history has shown that historical dramas can thrive during June and July (Saving Private Ryan,Pearl Harbor). Given the talent in front of and behind the camera (Matthew McConaugheyandGary Ross, respectively), it’s entirely possible thatFree State of Joneswill prove to be a very good film, but whether that will translate into box office success remains to be seen.
Recent Civil War dramas, particularlyLincolnandCold Mountain, were hugely successful at the box office and went on to win Oscars. Both films, however, were released at the height of awards season, making a comparison toFree State of Jonesa little tougher (and no,Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunterdoes not count as a Civil War drama). Instead, a good comparison is 2000’sThe Patriot. Both films have release dates just before 4thof July weekend, and both deal with a soldier rebelling against an oppressive force and who is fighting for/in revenge of his family.
However, while the Civil War was a major part of our nation’s history, it doesn’t carry quite the same emotional or patriotic weight as a film about the Revolutionary War being released around Independence Day. In addition, a major part ofThe Patriot’smarketing were around large-scale epic battles withMel Gibsonfighting alongside his sons, while the trailers forFree State of Jonesare more subtle in their presentation, focusing more on the drama than on the action.
The Patriot’s$113.3 million gross may be out of reach, but something close toCold Mountain’s$95.6 million seems feasible, especially if the film turns out to be good.Free State of Jonesalso has the added benefit of having adults seeking out drama to itself until Broad Green’sThe Infiltratorarrives nearly three weeks later.
Independence Day: Resurgence – June 24 (Fox)
It may be hard to imagine now, but at the time of its release,Independence Daywas one of the few blockbusters released in 1996. The film was a massive success, grossing $306.1 million and $817.4 million worldwide. A sequel has been rumored to be in the works for more than a decade, and it’s finally arriving 20 years later.
Last summer’sJurassic Worldsuccessfully captured the nostalgia ofJurassic Parkand caused fans of the first film to turn out in droves. While the trailers forIndependence Day: Resurgencedo inspire nostalgia forIndependence Day(with much larger ships and explosions), the original was not as iconic a film asJurassic Park, and lacks the star power ofChris Pratt.
Much of the original cast returns, however, includingJeff GoldblumandBill Pullman, along with newcomers and rising starsLiam HemsworthandMaika Monroe. The cast does have one major omission, however:Will Smith, who, despite not being as big a star as he was a decade ago, would undoubtedly help bring in more casual moviegoers.
However, like every other film directed by disaster aficionadoRoland Emmerich,Resurgencehas trailers that feature tons of action and world destruction, making this a hugely appealing summer tent pole. Alien invasion thrillers remain very popular, particularly summer blockbusters (War of the Worlds,Transformers). Despite feeling like a sequel that should have been released more than a decade prior, this will likely turn out to be a solid hit for Fox, particularly overseas.
