Last year, the Emmys started to become much harder to predict, which is ultimately a good thing. It was, and continues to be, the result of a higher calibre of nominees, with better series being represented across the board. There were still snubs, of course, as there areagain this year. But the Emmys are starting to better catch up with Peak TV, and rewarding – for the most part – actors, series, writers, and directors who are involved with some of the year’s best shows. Imagine that!
While the drama categories were once those which held the most anticipation, I would say that this year the more interesting categories might be regarding Limited Series, especially when it comes to the acting awards. There are not only some big names but great performances being pitted again one another. It’s a rare case where “who should win?” could have almost any answer (but there are more than a few instances of that being true in Comedy and Drama as well).
As a strong crop of newcomers make a play for dominance, and with movie stars in the mix, things might be even more difficult than usual to guesstimate. But I’ll give it my best shot! Below are my predictions for who should win, with less certainty given to who will, and who might provide an upset. Let us know your picks, sure-fire bets, and potential dark horses in the comments!
The Emmy Awards will air Sunday, September 17th on CBS withStephen Colberthosting.
Outstanding Comedy Series
Atlanta(FX)
black-ish(ABC)
Master of None(Netflix)
Modern Family(ABC)
Silicon Valley(HBO)
Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt(Netflix)
Who Should Win:Atlanta
Who Will Win:Veep
Dark Horse:black-ish
Veephas a very strong chance of winning this category, as it’s been a perennial favorite and just had another very good season. The Emmys sometimes like to reward a new series, though, andAtlantadefinitely caused us all to sit up and take notice when it debuted as one of the best shows of 2016. But … it’s also pretty avant garde for a traditional Emmy voters.Veep, crazily enough, has becomes a “safe” choice, and one that remains timely.black-ishorMaster of None– both of which came off of great seasons – could also make a play. But I thinkVeepremains a pretty safe bet.
Anthony Anderson,black-ish(ABC)
Aziz Ansari,Master of None(Netflix)
Zach Galifianakis,Baskets(FX)
Donald Glover,Atlanta(FX)
William H Macy,Shameless(Showtime)
Jeffrey Tambor,Transparent(Amazon)
Who Should Win:Donald Glover
Who Will Win:Donald Glover
Dark Horse:Aziz Ansari
Ansari is coming off a much-lauded season ofMaster of None, but my feeling is thatAtlantawill be recognized here with an award to its creator Glover, who of course also starred. While this is a show that worked particularly well because of its ensemble, Glover’s portrayal of his “Everyman” Earn Marks was full of not only comedy but a lot of pathos. Don’t count out a wild card like William H. Macy, though.
Pamela Adlon,Better Things(FX)
Jane Fonda,Grace and Frankie(Netflix)
Allison Janney,Mom(CBS)
Ellie Kemper,Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt(Netflix)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus,Veep(HBO)
Tracee Ellis Ross,black-ish(ABC)
Lily Tomiln,Grace and Frankie(Netflix)
Who Should Win:Pamela Adlon
Who Will Win:Lily Tomiln
Dark Horse:Allison Janney
Guys, I just have a crazy feeling about this one. More than likely it will go to Julia Louis-Dreyfus for her 68th Emmy (*rounded number), and it would be deserved. I can’t be mad about it. But Adlon gave a particularly stirring performance – one tinged with so much truth and heartbreak and humor – inBetter Things, and is my personal pick for the category. Still, that series is probably too under-the-radar for most Emmy voters. It’s certainly possible that Janney, who has also won before, could pick up the prize again. But I just have this feeling, based on nothing, that Tomlin is going to surprise everyone.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Louie Anderson,Baskets(FX)
Ty Burrell,Modern Family(ABC)
Alec Baldwin,Saturday Night Live(NBC)
Tituss Burgess,Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt(Netflix)
Tony Hale,Veep(HBO)
Matt Walsh,Veep(HBO)
Who Should Win:Louie Anderson
Who Will Win:Alec Baldwin
Dark Horse:Louie Anderson
I was so, so pleased last year to see Anderson awarded for his role as Christine Baskets inBaskets. I really didn’t think the Emmy voters had it in them then. But Anderson had evenmorematerial and screentime this year than last, and used it to even better effect. “Ronald Regan Library” should be enough to see Anderson get the Emmy again, and I definitely believe there’s a chance. But, there might be some kind of overarching political statement made with Baldwin winning, so my money would be on him. As far as past winner Ty Burrell, his Emmy reign forModern Familyis likely done, however, never say never! (To me he’s always been the best part of the show).
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Vanessa Bayer,Saturday Night Live(NBC)
Leslie Jones,Saturday Night Live(NBC)
Kate McKinnon,Saturday Night Live(NBC)
Kathryn Hahn,Transparent(Amazon)
Judith Light,Transparent(Amazon)
Anna Chlumsky,Veep(HBO)
Who Should Win:Judith Light
Who Will Win:Kate McKinnon
Dark Horse:Judith Light
I don’t particularly likeSNLbeing lumped in with comedy series, no matter how good any of these individual performances are. I think they belong in a variety category (even though that’s an imperfect solution for a number of reasons). So my personal bias would be towards Judith Light forTransparent, as she always gives such a fantastic and layered performance.And while I don’t watch enough ofSNLto know who might reallydeservethe nod out of the three actresses represented, McKinnon has been such a break-out star that she has the most momentum going into it (and she is, genuinely, a delight to watch in any role).
Outstanding Drama Series
Better Call Saul(AMC)
The Crown(Netflix)
The Handmaid’s Tale(Hulu)
House of Cards(Netflix)
Stranger Things(Netflix)
This Is Us(NBC)
Westworld(HBO)
Who Should Win:The Handmaid’s Tale
Who Will Win:The Handmaid’s Tale
Dark Horse:This Is Us
This is a tough, tough category to predict this year. But ultimately I thinkHandmaidwill ride a wave of critical and viewer praise that has kept it relevant in conversation long past its finale, becoming its own kind of cultural touchstone. And in turn, Hulu will collectively explode with happiness. But! The Emmys like to reward good broadcast programming, and while I personally don’t believe thatThis Is Usdeserves this distinction, there’s a good chance it could nab the award. Having said that, the Emmys also love British imports (consider about how many yearsDownton Abbeywas nominated, and won various awards, long past its expiration date), which meansThe Crowncould definitely be an upset pick – even though I personally would not be upset by it!
Basically, if Emmy voters are going to go for a populist series, they’ll pickThis Is UsoverStranger Things(orWestworld). But I still thinkHandmaidhas the edge.
Viola Davis,How to Get Away with Murder(ABC)
Claire Foy,The Crown(Netflix)
Elisabeth Moss,The Handmaid’s Tale(Hulu)
Keri Russell,The Americans(FX)
Evan Rachel Wood,Westworld(HBO)
Robin Wright,House of Cards(Netflix)
Who Should Win:Elisabeth Moss
Who Will Win:Elisabeth Moss
Dark Horse:Claire Foy
As much as I love, love, loveThe Americansand believe we are not worthy of Keri Russell … Moss is essentially a shoe-in here. But, again, Emmy voters love British-set series and Foy could (deservedly) have the upset. There’s a very outside chance that Robin Wright could sneak in here, but I really don’t think it’s going to be much of a question. However, if the award was for who does the best work with the worst material, Davis would absolutely crush it. She alone sustains the mess that isHTGAWM, and does so with unparalleled commitment.
Sterling K. Brown,This Is Us(NBC)
Anthony Hopkins,Westworld(Netflix)
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul(AMC)
Matthew Rhys,The Americans(FX)
Liev Schreiber,Ray Donovan(Showtime)
Kevin Spacey,House of Cards(Netflix)
Milo Ventimiglia,This Is Us(NBC)
Who Should Win:Bob Odenkirk
Who Will Win:Sterling K. Brown
Dark Horse:Anthony Hopkins
Basically, I think Bob Odenkirk should always win this award as long asBetter Call Saulis on the air (minus that one year that Matthew Rhys so totally owned his time onThe Americans). There are many fantastic performances inBetter Call Saul, but this last season really brought out some of the best work that Odenkirk has ever done. It was a powerful season full of sadness and grift, and ultimately made us really hate Jimmy even when he tried to redeem himself. It was bold and difficult, and still incredibly good. So while there is achance, there is a far, far better chance that Brown – who everyone rightfully loves, and who gaveThis Is Usits certain something over the course of Season 1 – will take home the Emmy. Honestly, I wouldn’t rule out aThis Is Ussweep.
And yet …! Don’t forget Anthony Hopkins. He is great, of course, but could replace Maggie Smith as the new “this is a stately British person of special distinction, who makes our awards look fancy” slot.
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series
Ann Dowd,The Handmaid’s Tale(Hulu)
Samira Wiley,The Handmaid’s Tale(Hulu)
Uzo Aduba,Orange Is the New Black(Netflix)
Millie Bobby Brown,Stranger Things(Netflix)
Chrissy Metz,This Is Us(NBC)
Thandie Newton,Westworld(HBO)
Who Should Win:Thandie Newton
Who Will Win:Chrissy Metz
Dark Horse:Samira Wiley
I’ve started to convince myself thatThis Is Uswill just win all the awards, but I do think that ifWestworldis going to get any awards on Emmy night it’s going to potentially be Newton, who ended up being the most exceptional part of that twisty series, giving us a character to genuinely root for (and very convincingly playing a robot at that). Don’t discount Wiley, though, who had a pivotal turn (several, in fact!) inHandmaid’s.
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks,Better Call Saul(AMC)
John Lithgow,The Crown(Netflix)
Mandy Patinkin,Homeland(Showtime)
Michael Kelly,House of Cards(Netflix)
David Harbour,Stranger Things(Netflix)
Ron Cephas Jones,This Is Us(NBC)
Jeffrey Wright,Westworld(HBO)
Who Should Win:John Lithgow
Who Will Win:John Lithgow
Dark Horse:Ron Cephas Jones
Jones was pretty outstanding onThis Is Us, and is largely responsible for some of the series' best moments. But Lithgow really stole the show onThe Crown, transforming into Churchill in a way that made him not an ancillary character so much as, at times, a co-lead. Lithgow captured the larger-than-life personality in ways I have not seen on screen before, and even ifThe Crowndoesn’t get any other Emmy nods, it will get this one.
