It’s no secret thatStar Wars: The Force Awakensis guaranteed to dominate the box office when it arrives in theaters December 18th. The release is weeks away yet the film hasalready raked in$50 million in pre-sale ticket purchases. It is the one full-blown blockbuster release coming out in a season full of ‘prestige’ films mainly concerned with vying for Oscars. TheRon Howard-directedIn The Heart of the Seabows the week beforeStar Warsarrives, along with the star-cladThe Big Short, featuringSteve Carell,Brad Pitt,Ryan Gosling, andChristian Bale. The second weekend ofStar Wars’ run will see the arrival of the highly-anticipatedThe Revenant,which featuresLeonardo DiCaprioand serves as directorAlejandro Inarritu’sfollow-up toBirdman, along with theJennifer LawrencevehicleJoy. And that same weekend also welcomes the release ofQuentin Tarantino’sThe Hateful Eight, albeit in very limited release.
Now, as mentioned, several of these films are highly anticipated, but they just won’t be able to compete for the same audience againstStar Wars, and certainly don’t have box-office record-setting in mind.So dismissing the possibility that the team-up of eitherAmy PoehlerandTina FeyinSistersorMark WahlbergandWill FerrellinDaddy’s Homepunch above their weights,Star Warshas a clear run to rake in a lot of money.
Yet it’s not always a benefit to have such high expectations, as the recentHunger Gamescan attest. Even though the film made $101 million during its opening weekend, it was seen as an underwhelming showing because it didn’t match or exceed the opening of its previous installments. Now, too much shouldn’t be read into one weekend, but given that studios are investing so much into fewer films that represent big properties, the bottom line becomes that much more reliant on their showings, and opening weekends present good indicators.
However, Disney is attempting to manage such expectations as its opening weekend approaches. Speaking withTHR, Studio Chairman Alan Horn addressed the latest tracking reports for the film, which will be announced tomorrow and expect to range from $180 million to $220 million. But, as we havepreviously reported, others believe it could climb closer to $250 million or even $300 million. Any of those numbers would represent a record for a December release, as the current record sits at a mere $85 million, held byThe Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. The magical number, of course, is $208.8 million, which represents the biggest domestic opening in history, achieved this past summer byJurassic World. $85 million is a long way from $300 million, and Disney doesn’t want the perception of ‘underperforming’ to enter the narrative of the film. As Horn states,
“It’s natural for people to want to view this and compare this to a summer blockbuster, but films in December don’t have the same historical release patterns as summer films. In December it’s rare to see a big debut. People are shopping, they’re traveling, they also know that their kids are going to be on vacation in a week and they’re going to all go see movies together.”
He has a point. It is in a unique situation, with not much precedence. Although one case of comparison happens to be the top-grossing film of all time,Avatar.Star Warscertainly has an opportunity to, literally, give it a run for its money. But keep in mind thatAvataropened in 2009 to an impressive but by no means earth-shattering $77 million, then still went on to earn $2.8 billion and set the all-time record (when you don’tadjust for inflation). And it had the benefit of people’s heightened interest in 3D. So even ifStar Warshas a slow start, don’t let that fool you. This thing will have legs. The question now is, how big of a head start will it get?
For more of ourStar Warscoverage, peruse the recent links below:
